(This Week) Carrington, Vaccines & Permanent Assumptions
14 June 2020
Welcome back to the Week That Was series where I highlight a few things from the interwebs which I thought were interesting, noteworthy and probably worth your time.
Articles๐, Tweet(s)๐ฑ, Videos๐ฅ, Charts ๐ all fair game with or without attendant commentary.
๐๐ฐ Print Publishing
The history of magazine publishing in one photo.
๐๐๐๐ Maakehts
Expect the unexpected.
For some who bought Sasol shares in March at the low ZAR20s mark and have ridden an ostensible blue-chip ticker (with penny-stock behaviour atm) almost 10X to the upside in a quarter (it closed over ZAR180 at some point this week).
Possible 10X returns within a year without the stock ever approaching itโs all-time high isโฆ pretty interesting. Yet, clearly thereโs nothing to see here as the market regularly delivers jaw-dropping stories multiple times a day now.
E.g. The current market confidence appears purely based on (admittedly astounding & historic levels of) QE and a strong return in demand.
A slightly more pointed take
The fact that $10,000 invested in Hertz the day after it filed for bankruptcy was at some point this week worth over $125,000 notwithstanding - the Nikola midweek valuation takes the cake.
In short:
At $33 billion, Nikola's market cap is now higher than Ford's ($30 billion).
โ Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 9, 2020
Nikola has $0 revenue vs. $150 billion for Ford over the last year.$NKLA $F https://t.co/xRLp1VDzbi
The weirdness of course means, at least over the last quarter, the โRobinhoodโ retail brigade rode the wave while billions of Warren Buffet & Carl Icahn shaped dollars sat on the sidelines.
๐โ๏ธ๐จ๐ Carrington Calling
As far as 2020 goes, we could definitely do with not ticking off Carrington Event 2.0 from the bingo card - as the year continues unfolding like a Black Mirror episode.
Kurzgezagt return to spooky titles in unpacking the mechanics behind these events.
๐ฝ Permanent Assumptions
I enjoy many of Morgan Houselโs blogs - hosted by Collaborative Fund where he is currently partner.
In this post he outlines what he calls 9 of his โpermanent assumptionsโ, each of which he details with an additional few lines. I present the summary here:
- More people wake up every morning wanting to solve problems than wake up looking to cause harm.
- The world breaks about once a decade. There are so few exceptions itโs astounding.
- Stories are more powerful than statistics.
- Nothing too good or too bad stays that way forever.
- Knowing there will be a reversion to the mean does not mean you know when things will revert.
- Incentives are the strongest force in the world.
- A big group of people can get smarter and better informed over time. But they canโt, on average, become more patient, less greedy, or more level-headed during periods of upheaval.
- History is mostly the study of unprecedented events, ironically used as a map of the future.
- Itโs easy to take advantage of people. Itโs also easy to underestimate the power and influence of groups of people who have been taken advantage of for too long.
๐ฆ ๐งผ๐๐ฆโ Greenzone
Fantastic graphic taken from Clive Thompsonโs article on WFH.
@jwโs thread pedantically outlining being triggered by it is also pretty good
๐๐ Vaccine Search Update
Jonathan Corum and Carl Zimmer detail progress on current vaccine efforts on this oft-updated NYT page.
Seema Yasmin returns looking at three current vaccine approaches to covid19 and the people looking at them.
๐จ Summer in the city, Mason London, Digital, 2020
๐ง ๐ฌ Keep Learning
โThe juvenile sea squirt wanders through the sea searching for a suitable rock or hunk of coral to cling to and make its home for life. For this task, it has a rudimentary nervous system. When it finds its spot and takes root, it doesnโt need its brain anymore, so it eats it! Itโs rather like getting tenure.โ โ Daniel Dennett
๐ด๐ฒโ๏ธ๐ณ๐ด Ohโฆand one more thing
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Thanks for reading. Tune in next week. And please share with your network
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fa17eab @ 2023-09-18